Austin Real Estate Market Update – May 21, 2025
Inventory Holds Near Record High as Buyer Market Conditions Deepen Further
Austin’s housing market update for May 21, 2025, underscores a market still defined by imbalance, with inventory holding just below historic highs and buyer activity continuing to lag. Active residential listings across the MLS total 16,948—only 129 listings shy of the all-time high of 17,077 recorded on May 19. Within Austin city limits, inventory remains elevated at 5,355, and price reductions are widespread: 51.2% of all active listings have experienced at least one drop, with areas like Liberty Hill and Leander seeing even higher adjustment rates. Year-to-date, new listings have reached 23,087—up 0.2% from 2024 and 25.8% above the historical average—marking the highest level of listing activity since 2004. This steady increase in supply continues to outpace buyer demand.
Cumulative pending listings from January through May now total 17,518, which is 2.0% below the long-term average and 14.0% below the same five-month period in 2024. The New Listing to Pending Ratio sits at 0.54 for the month of May and 0.66 year to date—both well under the 25-year average of 0.81—signaling ongoing absorption weakness. The Activity Index, a real-time indicator of market engagement, is now at 22.9%, down from 26.6% one year ago. These metrics together confirm that buyer response has not kept pace with the volume of new listings entering the market.
Months of Inventory (MOI) has risen to 6.03, a 22.6% increase year over year, pushing much of the region into firm buyer territory. However, the market remains deeply local—and the new Months of Inventory Table on page 18 of today’s report makes that distinction clear. Some areas have seen explosive inventory growth: Marble Falls is up 120.7% year to date, Cedar Park is up 108.8%, and Leander is up 80.4%. Meanwhile, other cities are experiencing tightening inventory, such as Del Valle at -13.2% YTD and Hutto with a striking -29.9% drop from January through May. These disparities illustrate that while macro trends point to oversupply, certain submarkets are moving in the opposite direction and may warrant different pricing or negotiation strategies.
Median pricing continues to reflect the broader correction. The median sold price for May 2025 is $460,000, down 16.36% from the May 2022 peak of $550,000. The average sold price is $599,087, representing a 12.15% decline from the peak of $681,939. Price declines are occurring across all segments, with the bottom 25th percentile down 4.3% and the top 25th percentile down 2.8% year over year. Price per square foot has also contracted in both tiers, confirming that the correction is not isolated to one segment of the market.
The Market Health Index (MHI) remains low at 18.4%, and the Inventory Stress Index (ISI) is just 5.4%—both indicative of continued buyer advantage. With per capita home sales and sales per agent well below average, and with more listings coming to market each week, the Austin housing market remains in a sustained correction cycle. Although isolated listings may still generate strong interest if priced aggressively, most properties are experiencing longer days on market and greater competition.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for May 21, 2025.
Austin Real Estate Market – Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current state of the Austin housing market in May 2025?
As of May 21, 2025, the Austin housing market continues to reflect a supply-heavy environment, with active residential listings reaching 16,948—just 129 units below the all-time high of 17,077 recorded two days prior. Year-to-date, new listings have climbed to 23,087, which is 25.8% above the long-term historical average and slightly up 0.2% from the same time last year. In contrast, buyer activity remains muted: pending listings year-to-date stand at 5,027, a 1.5% decline from 2024 and a 14.0% shortfall compared to the average for this period. The Activity Index has declined to 22.9%, down from 26.6% a year ago, underscoring weakening absorption. Key market ratios—such as the 0.54 monthly New Listing to Pending Ratio—confirm that new inventory is outpacing contract volume, increasing time on market and placing buyers in a stronger negotiating position. These trends collectively reflect a market still in correction, marked by growing leverage for buyers and elevated inventory levels across the region.
How much housing inventory is available in the City of Austin right now?
The City of Austin currently has 5,355 active residential listings, maintaining historically elevated levels. The Months of Inventory (MOI) has risen to 5.99, up 37.6% from 4.36 in January 2025 and up significantly from the 4.91 figure reported in May 2024. While the 7.0-month mark is generally viewed as a clear threshold for a buyer’s market, Austin is rapidly approaching that level, with many neighborhoods already reflecting buyer-favorable conditions. Importantly, real estate remains deeply local. According to the new Months of Inventory Table in the May 21 report (Page 18), some submarkets show extreme variation. For example, Marble Falls has experienced a 120.7% increase in inventory year to date, while Hutto has seen a dramatic -29.9% drop over the same period. This range highlights the importance of granular market analysis. Outlying areas like Dale, Spicewood, and Lago Vista are holding steady at 11.00 months of inventory, indicating severe oversupply, while a few markets are showing signs of tightening. These divergent trends suggest that pricing strategy and timing must be tailored by location and not by region-wide assumptions.
What does a New Listing to Pending Ratio of 0.54 mean for buyers and sellers?
A New Listing to Pending Ratio of 0.54 means that for every 100 new homes listed, only 54 are going under contract. This is a substantial divergence from the 25-year average of 0.81 and signals that demand is failing to keep up with the pace of new inventory entering the market. For sellers, this reflects increased competition, the likelihood of longer time on market, and the growing necessity of price reductions or incentives to attract offers. Without sharp, strategic pricing—especially in oversupplied areas—properties risk sitting idle. For buyers, this environment provides meaningful advantages: more options, less urgency, and stronger negotiating power. In practical terms, buyers are facing less pressure to act quickly and are in a better position to ask for concessions, repairs, or price adjustments. This ratio is one of the clearest indicators of the buyer-favoring conditions currently shaping the Austin area market.
Is buyer activity increasing or decreasing in the Austin real estate market?
Buyer activity is decreasing and continues to trend downward compared to both last year and long-term averages. The current Activity Index is 22.9%, which represents the proportion of active listings that are pending. This is a 14.0% year-over-year decline from 26.6% in May 2024. Year-to-date pending contracts are down 14.0% from the same period last year and 2.0% below the long-term average. This decrease in contract activity is especially notable given the simultaneous surge in new listings. The resulting supply-demand gap is contributing to higher inventory, reduced price stability, and growing days on market. A combination of affordability concerns, cautious consumer behavior, and rising inventory volumes is causing buyers to wait longer, negotiate harder, or sit on the sidelines. These conditions are creating a slow-moving environment where well-prepared buyers are finding increased leverage, especially in submarkets with excessive inventory.
How are Austin home prices trending in May 2025?
Austin home prices remain in a multi-year correction phase. The median sold price for May 2025 is $460,000, representing a 16.36% decline from the peak of $550,000 reached in May 2022. The average sold price has fallen to $599,087, down 12.15% from the $681,939 peak. While these declines are reflective of the broader correction, the downward trend is evident across all price tiers. The bottom 25th percentile has dropped 4.3% year over year in sale price and 2.7% in price per square foot. The top 25th percentile has also declined, with prices down 2.8% and price per foot down 3.3%. Despite modest gains in the year-to-date average price, driven by isolated higher-end sales, the median tells a more cautionary story—showing that most households are transacting below prior year values. This sustained softening reflects market saturation, buyer resistance to elevated prices, and the impact of rising months of inventory. Projections suggest that if $460,000 marks the trough of the current cycle, it could take until January 2029 for median prices to fully recover to peak levels based on historical appreciation trends.
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